Certainty vs. Uncertainty: Understanding Scientific Terms about Climate Change
Dear Daniel,
In an effort to counter those who deny and distort climate science, UCS has launched a major initiative to refocus America’s attention on the impacts of climate change and urgent need to rein in global warming emissions. Today, we bring you one in a series of stories about climate science by climate scientists:
Certainty vs. Uncertainty: Understanding Scientific Terms about Climate Change
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Climate change deniers have tried to claim that less than complete certainty about climate science means the same thing as not knowing anything. But the truth is, scientists know a great deal about global warming. 
Uncertainty is ubiquitous in our daily lives. We are uncertain about where to go to college, where we should live, who will play in the World Series.
To most of us, uncertainty means not knowing. To scientists, however, uncertainty is how well something is known. This is an important difference, especially when trying to understand what is known about climate change.
In this culture of transparency where climate scientists describe degrees of certainty and confidence in their findings, climate change deniers have linked less than complete certainty with not knowing anything.
But the truth is, scientists know a great deal about climate change. We have learned, for example, that the burning of fossil fuels and the clearing of forests release carbon dioxide into the atmosphere. There is no uncertainty about this. We have learned that carbon dioxide and other gases in the atmosphere trap heat through the greenhouse effect. Again, there is no uncertainty about this. It is very likely (greater than 90 percent probability) that human activities are the main reason for the world's temperature increase in the past 50 years.
This article is part of a major UCS initiative—built on our long history—to strengthen the communication of climate science to the American public. UCS depends on the financial support of people like you to make this work possible. Please become a member today.
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