Via AmericaBlog: Mark Shields: High percentage of voters dissatisfied with direction country going makes Obama re-elect more difficult

Mark Shields:

When the percentage of Americans who were dissatisfied with the way things were going has climbed over 70 percent, it has indicated that the presidential nominee of the party controlling the White House would lose.

In 1992, when Clinton defeated George H.W. Bush, 73 percent of voters before the election were dissatisfied. The last time Gallup asked that question before Ronald Reagan ousted Carter, 78 percent of voters did not like the way things were going in the U.S. In 2008 — well before the financial crisis that would seal the outcome — 80 percent of voters were dissatisfied.

By contrast, voters do not need to be thrilled with the way things are going to vote to retain a president. Both George W. Bush and Clinton won second terms when just over 40 percent of voters were satisfied with the direction of the U.S., and the national mood was just slightly more positive when Ronald Reagan won his 1984 re-election landslide.

Here is the problem for Obama. In seven national surveys this year, Gallup has asked the way things are going question. The results have been consistently negative — an average of 21 percent are satisfied and just over 76 percent dissatisfied. Those are numbers that tell us voters want change and not continuity in their leadership.